Gold & Silver Forum - Security: Power To The People (and Blackwater)

Security: Power To The People

Fast Company Issue 103 | March 2006 | Page 120 | By: John Robb
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/...-security.html

The myth of American omnipotence fell in the Iraqi desert, laid low by an agile new enemy. We have a chance now to rethink the systems that protected us in the past. It's one we cannot miss.

[edited out: "its all the terrorists fault for the mess we are in"; yada yada yada]

The second insight Iraq gives us is that the convergence of international crime and terrorism will provide ample fuel and a global platform for these new enemies. Al Qaeda's attack on Madrid, for example, was funded by the sale of the drug Ecstasy. And Moisés Naím, in his new book, Illicit, details how globalization has fostered the development of a huge criminal economy that boasts a technologically leveraged global supply chain (like Wal-Mart's) and can handle everything from human trafficking (Eastern Europe) to illicit drugs (Asia and South America), pirated goods (Southeast Asia), arms (Central Asia), and money laundering (everywhere). Naím puts the value of that economy at between $2 trillion and $3 trillion a year. He says it is expanding at seven times the rate of legitimate world trade.

This terrorist-criminal symbiosis becomes even more powerful when considered next to the most disturbing sign coming out of Iraq: The terrorists have developed the ability to fight nation-states strategically--without weapons of mass destruction. This new method is called "systems disruption," a simple way of attacking the critical networks (electricity, oil, gas, water, communications, and transportation) that underpin modern life. Such disruptions are designed to erode the target state's legitimacy, to drive it to failure by keeping it from providing the services it must deliver in order to command the allegiance of its citizens. Over the past two years, attacks on the oil and electricity networks in Iraq have reduced and held delivery of these critical services below prewar levels, with a disastrous effect on the country, its people, and its economy.

The early examples of systems disruption in Iraq and elsewhere are ominous. If these techniques are even lightly applied to the fragile electrical and oil-gas systems in Russia, Saudi Arabia, or anywhere in the target-rich West, we could see a rapid onset of economic and political chaos unmatched since the advent of blitzkrieg. (India's January arrest of militants with explosives in Hyderabad suggests that the country's high-tech industry could be a new target.) It's even worse when we consider the asymmetry of the economics involved: One small attack on an oil pipeline in southeast Iraq, conducted for an estimated $2,000, cost the Iraqi government more than $500 million in lost oil revenues. That is a return on investment of 25,000,000%.

Now that the tipping point has been reached, the rise of global virtual states--with their thriving criminal economies, innovative networks, and hyperefficient war craft--will rapidly undermine public confidence in our national-security systems. In fact, this process has already begun. We've seen disruption of our oil supply in Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Colombia; the market's fear of more contributes mightily to the current high prices. But as those disruptions continue, the damage will spill over into the very structure of our society. Our profligate Defense Department, reeling from its inability to defend our borders on September 11 or to pacify even a small country like Iraq, will increasingly be seen as obsolete. The myth of the American superpower will be exposed as such.

Then, inevitably, there will be a series of attacks on U.S. soil. The first casualty of these will be another institution, the ultrabureaucratic Department of Homeland Security, which, despite its new extra-legal surveillance powers, will prove unable to isolate and defuse the threats against us. (Its one big idea for keeping the global insurgency at bay--building a fence between Mexico and the United States, proposed in a recent congressional immigration bill--will prove as effective as the Maginot Line and the Great Wall of China.)

But the metaphorical targets of September 11 are largely behind us. The strikes of the future will be strategic, pinpointing the systems we rely on, and they will leave entire sections of the country without energy and communications for protracted periods. But the frustration and economic pain that result will have a curious side effect: They will spur development of an entirely new, decentralized security system, one that devolves power and responsibility to a mix of private companies, individuals, and local governments. This structure is already visible in the legions of private contractors in Iraq, as well as in New York's amazingly effective counterterrorist intelligence unit. But as we look out to 2016, the long-term implications are clearer.

Security will become a function of where you live and whom you work for, much as health care is allocated already. Wealthy individuals and multinational corporations will be the first to bail out of our collective system, opting instead to hire private military companies, such as Blackwater and Triple Canopy, to protect their homes and facilities and establish a protective perimeter around daily life. Parallel transportation networks--evolving out of the time-share aircraft companies such as Warren Buffett's NetJets--will cater to this group, leapfrogging its members from one secure, well-appointed lily pad to the next. Members of the middle class will follow, taking matters into their own hands by forming suburban collectives to share the costs of security--as they do now with education--and shore up delivery of critical services. These "armored suburbs" will deploy and maintain backup generators and communications links; they will be patrolled by civilian police auxiliaries that have received corporate training and boast their own state-of-the-art emergency-response systems. As for those without the means to build their own defense, they will have to make do with the remains of the national system. They will gravitate to America's cities, where they will be subject to ubiquitous surveillance and marginal or nonexistent services. For the poor, there will be no other refuge.

Until, that is, the next wave of adaptive innovation takes hold. For all of these changes may prove to be exactly the kind of creative destruction we need to move beyond the current, failed state of affairs. By 2016 and beyond, real long-term solutions will emerge. Cities, most acutely affected by the new disruptions, will move fastest to become self-reliant, drawing from a wellspring of new ideas the market will put forward. These will range from building-based solar systems from firms such as Energy Innovations to privatized disaster and counterterrorist responses. We will also see the emergence of packaged software that combines real-time information (the status of first-responder units and facilities) with interactive content (information from citizens) and rich sources of data (satellite maps). Corporate communications monopolies will crumble as cities build their own emergency wireless networks using simple products from companies such as Proxim.

Self-Reliance

By 2016, we may see the trials of the previous decade as progress in disguise. The grassroots security effort will do more than just insulate our gas lines and high schools. It will also spur positive social change: So-called green systems will quickly shed their tree-hugger status and be seen as vital components of our economic and personal security. Even those civilian police auxiliaries could turn out to be a good thing in the long run: Their proliferation--and the technology they'll adopt--will lead to major reductions in crime.

Some towns and cities will go even further. In an effort to bar the door against expanding criminal networks, certain communities will move to regulate, tax, and control everything from illegal immigration to illicit drugs, despite federal pressure to do otherwise. A newly vigilant and networked public will push for much greater levels of transparency in government and corporate operations, using the Internet to expose, publish, and patch potential security flaws. Over time, this new transparency, and the wider participation it entails, will lead to radical improvements in government and corporate efficiency.

On the national level, we'll see a withering of the security apparatus, but quite possibly a flowering in other areas. Energy independence and the obsolescence of conventional war with other countries will reduce tensions between the United States and the rest of the world. The end of oil will also force corrupt states, now propped up by energy income, to make the reforms they need to be accepted internationally, improving life for their people.

Perhaps the most important global shift will be the rise of grassroots action and cross-connected communities. Like the Internet, these new networks will develop slowly at first. After a period of exponential growth, however, they will quickly become all but ubiquitous--and astonishingly powerful, perhaps as powerful as the networks arrayed against us. And so we will all become security consultants, taking an active role in deciding how it is bought, structured, and applied. That's a great responsibility and, with luck, an enormous opportunity. Choose wisely.

John Robb was a mission commander for a "black" counterterrorism unit that worked with Delta Force and Seal Team 6 before becoming the first Internet analyst at Forrester Research and a key architect in the rise of Web logs and RSS. He is writing a book on the logic of terrorism.

The Importance Of Cooperation - Soon To Be Essential

Survival Acres; Sustainable Living & Common Dense
July 22, 2007 http://survivalacres.com/wordpress/?p=799

This will be one of the most important blog entries I’ve ever written because it is an issue that will affect 99% of my readers.

If you are like me, you are an average Joe Citizen, trying to make ends meet in an increasingly competitive and expensive world. As resource scarcity increases the costs of goods and services, everything from food to fuel, water to widgets, the day-to-day reality of finding ways to pay for the necessities of life becomes increasingly harder and harder to afford.

The day is soon coming when basic needs such as food, clothing, shelter, land, electricity, water and other essentials will be unaffordable for many of us. For some, this is already happening, evidenced by the massive homeless problem we have in America.

Americans are a very independent minded people. Each of us wants our own “space”, our own slice of heaven on earth. We’re very accustomed to the idea that the kids will move out, take up lives of their own and lives independently as we do. Yet this idea is based upon several assumptions:

a) unlimited growth and consumption; enough for everybody now and future generations.

b) unlimited resources demands and production; plenty to go around.

c) economic and educational opportunity for anyone who wants it.

The future poses serious doubts about these assumptions for reasons covered on this blog. A severe economic crash is presently in the offering, impacting all of the world’s citizens. Resource collapse is already evident around the globe on many fronts. Economic growth cannot continue or be maintained for much longer. A “contraction”, also known as re-localization will occur out of necessity. This will also prevent advanced education opportunities because of time, distance, affordability and opportunity.

Collapse, “contraction”, or economic downturn due to climate change, economic failure or any other reason will affect everyone relatively equally. However, the reality is we are not all equal. Those that will suffer the most and experience the greatest impacts will be those that have limited means to absorb the extraordinary high costs of increased living expenses.

I say “extraordinary” because there are several case histories where limited collapse caused inflationary expenses over 8000%. A global collapse will cause this and much, much more.

What this means is the cost of goods, housing, food, fuel, land, electricity, water and necessary items for living will become extremely expensive. For many people, the vast majority - such items will be truly unaffordable.

A massive downsizing of assets will occur as people liquidate assets at firesale prices to afford just the basic essentials of food, water and housing. Bankruptcies will be epidemic as people simply walk away from their unaffordable mortgages. A gigantic glut of homes will be standing virtually empty as creditors toss homeowners out on the street. This too is already now happening, with huge inventories of unsold properties on the market and bankruptcies rising.

This will worsen greatly as the collapse deepens. Our approach to this forthcoming reality is critical - how will we deal with this? How will we even survive?

We are going to be forced to cooperate together. We will have no choice. Our independent lifestyles of living will no longer be affordable. We are going to need each other for financial and physical assistance. We will need to share the costs of food, land, housing and water and labor.

Most likely, families will contract and once again, support grandkids and grandparents, even aunts and uncles on the same land base, or even nearby.

Family cooperation is the most likely, but in many cases this either will be insufficient or impossible due to extenuating circumstances. But cooperation with others for most people will now become essential. It’s doubtful that anyone except the rich will “stand alone” and even they won’t in reality - they’ll just pay their minons to do their bidding for them (just like they do now).

It will be important to forge relationships very soon with other people for the coming contraction. Those that don’t are already experiencing the struggles of going it alone. What is presently unaffordable to one family can still be achieved with two or more.

I’ve already experienced this myself by the way and I’m aware of others experiencing this too. The need to have ‘livable land’ where some food can be grown, that provides safety, security and shelter, and to be debt free and unencumbered by high expenses all alone.

Those that try to go it alone will experience the ever-increasing costs by themselves and lack the financial and physical support that will soon be necessary in order to survive. They will succumb sooner, rather then later, compared to those that join forces.

It must be recognized that at some point, it will simply become too expensive to be alone, unless you already wealthy and rich enough that it won’t matter. But then again, if you’re one of those people, you probably don’t read this blog.

The need to have both financial and physical assistance will become increasingly acute because the difficulty in simply staying alive and being able to afford to do so will rise with each passing month.

Those that join forces or families together will be able to take advantage of shared costs for land, housing, water and gardening, and such things as necessary development, protection, defense, transportation and work load.

Ideally, entire communities (towns) would do this, but I see this as unlikely, because of the social stratification that exists in every town and the entrenched ideas of “control”. It’s much more likely that this stratification will remain much as it is today and the ‘classes’ will band together out of necessity, especially the lower classes. The richer will continue to be able to afford most things more or less indefinitely, even hiring ‘protectors’ and laborers to do their bidding for them.

It is the lower classes, the poorer people who will be impoverished the most (and who often carry the higher personal debt ratios now). These will be the ones will need to start considering how they are simply going to afford the high cost of living. Of course, I’m referring to the middle class too, which is largely in debt to it’s eyeballs too. They will succumb very soon to the high costs of living and will soon join the lower class. Some will endure and manage, many won’t.

Living standards will decline dramatically in many ways. Extraneous expenses will need to be curtailed. No booze, cigarettes or videos. No entertainment and wasted transportation. The need to cut expenses and concentrate on the necessities of life will be paramount.

Only a couple of days ago, the price of powdered milk jumped over 300% overnight. It’s not hard to project what this means for the future. There are many reasons why food will become unaffordable for millions of people. But it’s not just food, it will be other essentials like transportation, even employment requiring long distance transportation, electricity and even water. Economic and environmental collapse will severely impact all of these things. Toss in peak oil and the decline of our civilization and you have sure-fired recipe for a global disaster of biblical proportions. How are you going to afford to live?

Most people are struggling right now, not really having the means to create a sizeable nest egg or even get out of debt. They’re living from paycheck to paycheck, credit card payment to credit card purchase. The future will be very simple, no nest egg will be required - the need to simply survive by tooth and nail will be paramount and all-encompassing.

Recently, I became aware of just how terribly expensive it is to develop alternative power. All the hype surrounding alternative energy and even hybrid cars is drowning out the real, actual costs it takes to pay for all of this. It costs over $50,000 to develop wind power for example for a single typical American family, who must also be living in a wind zone. How can anyone truly afford that?

But this exemplifies what is happening with other costs too. Housing is still ridiculously priced in most areas of the country, although a massive housing crash is expected soon. Developing land into a homestead has some very high prices attached which probably won’t ever go away. One family may or may not be able to presently afford to do so. But what about in a couple of years? Will it even be possible for one family to do so that don’t have a huge pile of cash to start with? Probably not. They’ll probably try to do without - for a while, until reality sets in and they realize they simply can’t afford to live - anywhere without help.

We’re seeing huge price jumps in just the last couple of years, while many are still falsely proclaiming peak oil is not here. We’ve not seen anything yet, it will get much, much worse, and when it does our ability to survive will be highly questionable unless we start pulling together.

I strongly suspect that cooperation will be absolutely essential for most of us. Wages are not keeping up with the cost of living and the contraction effect will have severe global impacts on what jobs continue to exist and what local wages are paid. Everyone one knows that local wages are less then those found in the major metropolitan areas - but these metro areas will become unlivable. Commuting will become unaffordable. So what are you going to do? Take a low paying local job instead? Can you truly buy land and meet your family needs doing that?

Unless prices make a massive correction, no - you can’t. You discover you have to work two jobs and your spouse is also working and your kids are contributing and it’s still not enough. That’s the reality of the future we are facing as resources become scarcer and scarcer and prices reach beyond the moon. Cooperation with others will be essential.

There are several, well many other things to consider, not the least which is “how will this work”? Not easily. We will need to unlearn a whole lot that we have cherished as one of our basic freedoms. And that is the concept of private property. I’m not referring to just land, but everything. The cooperative groups will need to share tractors, tools, water, land, equipment and resources. They’ll also need to share crops, food, labor and chores. That’s not something we are much inclined to do right now. We believe that preserving our right to ‘ownership’ and ‘control’ over every one of these things is a “right”.

Frankly, this is faulty thinking, instilled within us by modern civilization. Tribal living reveals that concepts such as private property are alien. Private property also has led to the massive exploitation of resources and control. Many people claim that this is “communistic thinking”, I know, I’ve read their commentaries, but these same people also believe that we can continue to exploit the Earth’s resources indefinitely.

But the reality is actually quite different. Cooperation is shared upon mutual need. Another important point - we do not own the Earth, the Earth owns us. When we die - we take nothing with us, why should we care what we own while we live? This is a great lie taught to us from birth. Control and own as much as you can, a “get yours while you can” despite it’s actual costs or the damage such thinking creates.

This was an alien thought to our ancestors for a reason. They realized that it led to all kinds of vice and social problems. To them, nobody owned the land and what personal possessions one needed were simple and easily replaced. Beyond that, they didn’t need that much. We would do well to learn that lesson as our world crumbles around us. And we would do well to remember that this is why it’s crumbling around us, because we sought to own and control everything with no regard to it’s expense and damage.
It is my view that these realities will be increasingly evident as time progresses and the difficulties in living become more “real” to even the most obtuse among us. We’re going to be forced to cooperate, despite our objections, our differences or our desires.

I don’t think cooperation or even contraction is such a bad thing either. We are being presented with an opportunity to fix our own foolish behavior. I only hope we choose to make the best of it.